Population forecast projects SA’s future
Published Friday, 4 August 2023
South Australia’s population will exceed two million people by 2031 – according to new 30-year forecast figures – with the projection set to play a critical role in the state’s future growth plans.
The growth is partly driven by a major jobs and economy pipeline being created through South Australia’s role in building nuclear-powered submarines following the AUKUS agreement and the South Australian Government’s Hydrogen Jobs Plan.
Projections will be used to plan future infrastructure and housing, along with the critical government services required to underpin the state’s population in areas such as education, health and transport.
Government agencies will use the figures as a foundation for all future planning requirements, enabling long-term planning to reflect the changing size, distribution and age structure of the state’s population. The projections will further support sustainable growth, and adequate supply of residential and employment land.
The updated data will also form a vital part of the new Greater Adelaide Regional Plan being developed – replacing the 2017 update of the original 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide first prepared in 2010 – commencing critical discussion with the community about how and where the state grows and who calls South Australia home beyond 2050.
South Australia’s population grew by 1.6 per cent to 1.834 million in the year ending in December 2022. It follows previous growth rates recorded this year surpassing the eastern states over the past 12 months.
The increasing pace of local population growth continues to generate economic activity and create jobs while reinforcing Adelaide’s ranking as one of the world’s most liveable cities with expat South Australians returning to the state.
According to the projections:
- South Australia’s population is most likely to reach between 2.33 million and 2.53 million over the next 30 years to 2051
- Greater Adelaide’s population will increase by up to 672,000 people, reaching between 2 and 2.19 million by 2051 – around 86 per cent of the state’s population
- the annual growth rate in Greater Adelaide is set to peak as high as 1.55 per cent in 2021-31
- regional South Australia is set for an annual growth rate of up to 0.7 per cent.
The projections were developed by the Department for Trade and Investment’s Planning and Land Use Services division. They are based on ABS Census of Population and Housing data, expert advice on demographic trends and population change, including migration, fertility and mortality data.
Both the medium and high population growth scenarios consider significant employment opportunities in regional SA, such as renewable energy and mining projects, as well as current and future residential development needs identified through the Greater Adelaide and country regional plans.
The South Australian Government has previously announced it is fast tracking the single largest release of residential land in the state’s history – set to deliver more than 25,000 homes – as part of the government’s Better Housing Future plan.
