Population projections

Population projections help us to understand the most likely future size, age structure and distribution of the population of the state. Projections play a critical role in planning for the state’s sustainable growth and maintaining Adelaide’s reputation as one of the world’s most liveable cities.

The state government provides population projections at several geographic levels which are updated every five years. These projections follow the release of final figures from the most recent Census of Population and Housing published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

South Australia and regional projections

In 2021, South Australia’s population was 1.82 million and over the next 30 years is projected to reach between 2.33 million (medium scenario) and 2.53 million (high scenario).

For the high growth scenario, the total projected increase is 731,000 people at an average annual growth rate of 1.4%. The medium scenario would see around 532,000 additional people (1% per annum).

South Australia population

South Australia population by age

The Greater Adelaide Planning Region (GAPR) comprises ten sub-regions. Seven of these sub-regions are within the Greater Adelaide Capital City statistical area (GACC) (also referred to as metropolitan Adelaide):

  • Inner Metro
  • Inner North
  • Adelaide West
  • Inner South
  • Outer North
  • Outer South
  • Adelaide Hills

The three outer sub-regions are:

  • Fleurieu Peninsula
  • Murray Bridge
  • Northern Plains and Barossa

Projected growth 2021 to 2051

Growth within the GAPR is largely driven by housing supply and employment opportunities. Housing supply is expected to be greatest within the GACC, due to its proximity to the CBD and employment opportunities.

  • In 2021 the population of GAPR was 1.52 million and accounted for 84% of the total population of South Australia. By 2051 this share is projected to increase to around 86%.
  • For the medium projection, the population increases by 489,900 to 2.01 million by 2051. The annual growth rate peaks in 2021-31 at 1.22% and then declines to around 0.8% in 2041-51.
  • For the high projection, the population increases by 672,400 to 2.19 million by 2051. The annual growth rate peaks in 2021-31 at 1.55% and then declines to around 1.1% in 2041-51.
  • For the low projection, the population increases by 304,500 to 1.82 million by 2051. The annual growth rate peaks in 2021-2031 at 0.89% before decreasing to 0.44% in 2041-51.

Greater Adelaide population

Greater Adelaide population by age

Projections have been prepared for the following country sub-regions:

  • Eyre Peninsula and South West (excluding Whyalla)
  • Whyalla
  • Limestone Coast (excluding Mt Gambier & Grant)
  • Mt Gambier & Grant
  • Mid North
  • Murray and Mallee (excluding Murray Bridge which has been included in Greater Adelaide)
  • Outback North and East
  • Yorke Peninsula
  • Kangaroo Island

Projected growth 2021 to 2051

  • In 2021, the estimated residential population (ERP) was 287,700, accounting for 16% of the total population of South Australia.
  • For the medium projection, the population increases by 41,700 to reach 329,000 by 2051, at an average annual growth rate of 0.48%.
  • For the high projection, the population increases by 58,800 to reach 346,500 by 2051, at an annual growth rate of 0.7%

Country South Australia population

Country South Australia population by age

Population projections have been developed for 19 sub-regions across South Australia for a 20-year period, from 2021 to 2041. The projection horizon for the sub-regions is only 20 years due to the greater uncertainty around the future size and spatial distribution of growth across South Australia.

The following table summarises the 2021 total population and 2041 projected population (medium series), and the average annual growth rate for each sub-region.

Sub-region 2021 population

2041
projection

Change 2021-2041

Ave. annual change

Ave. annual change (%)

Inner Metro 235,366 279,818 44,452 2,223 0.94
Adelaide West 247,123 290,478 43,355 2,168 0.88
Inner North 321,850 371,980 50,130 2,507 0.78
Outer North 139,452 229,115 89,663 4,483 3.21
Inner South 200,133 221,128 20,995 1,050 0.52
Outer South 177,968 205,055 27,087 1,354 0.76
Adelaide Hills 80,501 108,291 27,790 1,389 1.73
Murray Bridge 22,689 31,935 9,246 462 2.04
Northern Plains & Barossa 38,797 50,866 12,069 603 1.56
Fleurieu Peninsula 51,612 70,754 19,142 957 1.85
Greater Adelaide Total1,515,4911,859,421343,93017,1961.13%
Kangaroo Island 4,999 6,001 1,002 50 1.00
Eyre Peninsula & South West 37,004 41,419 4,415 221 0.60
Whyalla 21,868 23,595 1,727 86 0.39
Limestone Coast 31,970 34,435 2,465 123 0.39
Mount Gambier 36,572 42,547 5,975 299 0.82
Mid North 41,287 42,729 1,442 72 0.17
Murray and Mallee 50,408 54,077 3,669 183 0.36
Outback North and East 26,714 26,929 215 11 0.04
Yorke Peninsula 36,879 43,344 6,465 323 0.88
Regional SA Total287,701315,07627,3751,3690.48%
State Total1,803,1922,174,497371,30518,5651.03%

Local area projections

Population projections have been developed for South Australia at the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) for the 20-year period from 2021 to 2041*. These projections follow on from, and are concordant with, the state and regional population projections released in June 2023.

Projections have been prepared for 174 SA2s. For the SA2s within the Greater Adelaide Planning Region, the distribution of population is driven by assumptions about the spatial distribution of future land supply and development opportunities.

For SA2s outside of the Greater Adelaide Planning Region the projections are largely based on demographic trends with some intervention to reflect local economic drivers likely to influence population growth.

The following chart summarises the 2021 total population and 2041 projected population under both the medium and high series, for the top 20 growth SA2s.

Population projections, 2021-2041 (medium and high series) for top 20 growth SA2s

*The projection horizon for local area projections is only 20 years due to the greater uncertainty around the future size and spatial distribution of growth across South Australia.

Population projections have been developed for South Australia at the Local Government Area (LGA) level, for the 20-year period from 2021 to 2041*. These projections follow on from, and are concordant with, the state and regional population projections released in June 2023.

Projections have been prepared for all LGAs in South Australia. For LGAs within the Greater Adelaide Planning Region, the distribution of population is driven by assumptions about the spatial distribution of future land supply and development opportunities.

For LGAs outside of the Greater Adelaide Planning Region the projections are largely based on demographic trends with some intervention to reflect local economic drivers likely to influence population growth.

The following chart summarises the 2021 total population and 2041 projected population under both the medium and high series, for the top 20 growth LGAs.

Population projections, 2021-2041 (medium and high series) for top 20 growth LGAs

*The projection horizon for local area projections is only 20 years due to the greater uncertainty around the future size and spatial distribution of growth across South Australia.

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